The enclosed article from Financial Times supports IDC Financial Publishing’s forecast for the 10-year yield to rebound to 2% by year-end 2021 and how banks will be the major beneficiaries. Big Investors Stick with Bets Against Bonds After Painful Run1 Heavyweight bond investors are sticking with bets against US government debt, saying…
The Relationship Between Core and Trimmed PCE Inflation Rates and the 10-Year TIPS YieldWhen the 10-Year yield minus the core PCE inflation rate reaches its most negative point and reverses, this forecasts a low and recovery in the TIPS yield (see Chart I). Or, when the Federal Reserve changes policy…
The decline in the TIPS 10-year yield to -1.0% reduced the 10-year nominal yield to 1.35%. The delay in the expected increase in the TIPS to 0.4% and nominal to 2.0% reduces the 1-year forecast for appreciation potential for large banks to 57% from the initial estimate of 68%, based…
Credit unions have grown to become a major factor in the U.S. economy, with assets that have grown at nearly twice the pace of banks’ over the past decade.1 Credit unions are owned by their members and are designed to offer lower borrowing costs and higher deposit rates. In addition, the…
In May, IDC published this article and predictions based on trailing 12-month dividends. These included realized capital gains, so this double-counted the forecast. Following is our corrected forecast. Inflation can erode purchasing power over time, especially in a fixed income investment. Carefully selected dividend stock ETFs, with high yield and dividend…
