In IDC’s previous article “How the German 10-Year Yields Forecast the Beginning and End of Bull Markets in Bank and Value Stocks,” the research pointed out the 10-year TIPS yield combined with the German 10-year forecast two major bull markets in bank stocks, from December 10, 2012 to February 15,…
Over the last decade, the first bull market in bank stocks began on December 10, 2012, with the U.S. 10-year TIPS yield low of -0.87%. This bull market lasted 5 years and 2 months, ending on February 12, 2018, with a peak in the 10-year TIPS yield. The KBW Large…
In the last five years, banking financials have improved dramatically based on IDC Financial Publishing‘s (IDC’s) NOPAT ROE rising from 12.0% in the fourth quarter of 2016 to 19.4% in the second quarter of 2021. During the same period, reported stockholders ROE increased from 12.5% to 21.7%. Forecast NOPAT ROE…
As a broker, would you be interested to learn about new banks or credit unions as potential issuers of brokered CDs to capitalize on this forecast? Would it be helpful to see the characteristics of these institutions, such as loan to deposit ratio or loan growth, that could be applied…
The cycle low and continued increase in U.S. T-Note yields is due to several reasons. A massive short position, which anticipated significant yield increases, was covered to limit losses. Foreign buying of U.S. Treasuries since dollar hedge U.S. yields continue to exceed foreign government yields hedged for currency risk. The…
