Update as of December 6, 2021 Over the last decade, the first bull market in bank stocks began on December 10, 2012, with the U.S. 10-year TIPS yield low of -0.87%. This bull market lasted 5 years and 2 months, ending on February 15, 2018, with a peak in the…
A low in the German 3-month yield determines the low in BKX Index of large bank stocks. A cycle low in the German 3-month yield at less than -1.00% occurred on October 31, 2021, and since November 15, 2021 to date. Previously, cycle lows only occurred in November of 2016,…
IDC Financial Publishing’s Record in History From 1990 to 2018, there were 1,419 failures of banks. Of these, 90% (1,271 banks) were ranked less than 125 by IDC Financial Publishing (IDCFP) up to 17 months before failure. Further, 73% (1,033 banks) were rated less than 125 by IDCFP up to 29…
Following is an update to IDC’s article “How the German 10-Year Yields Forecast the Beginning and End of Bull Markets in Bank and Value Stocks,” where the research indicated the U.S. 10-year TIPS yield, combined with the German 10-year, forecast two major bull markets in bank stocks, from December 10,…
The confluence of Fed buying, the spike in reported CPI inflation for October, pipeline supply problems impacting industries like auto and retail, high levels of Fed spending and debt issuance, as well as short covering by traders of the 20-year T-Bond, all together, tighten the “coiled spring” in yields, forcing…
