In order to understand future declines in core CPI, we highlight points from Tom Lee’s FSInsight and apply some of our insights. Implied inflation 1-year dropped from 6.3% to 4.8%, 5-year declined from 3.6% to 2.9% and 10-year fell from 2.9% to 2.6%.Year-end 2022 market pricing of Fed funds rate…
Cycle lows in the High Yield Bond ETF (HYG) historically have occurred at the lows in the stock market (see Chart I). U.S. 10-year yield and high yield bonds have already priced the peak in inflation peak and future Fed funds rate increases. Tom Demark is one of the leading stock…
Updated for 1st Quarter 2022 Ranks Over the next two years, we expect the number of banks issuing brokered CDs to grow, recovering in 2022 and reaching the prior high of 1500 by 2024 (see Chart I). With the dramatic rise in 2 and 5-year yields, so have the yields offered…
RenMac’s economists, using the April CPI and PPI data, estimated “core PCE” (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) will be reported at 0.30%, or 3.6% annualized, for April.1 Chart I Bond Market 5-Year Implied Inflation at 2.9% Forecasts a Future Core CPI and PCE Below 3% Reasons for Inflation to Peak…
Cycle lows in the High Yield Bond ETF (HYG) historically have occurred at the lows in the stock market (see Chart I). U.S. 10-year yield and high yield bonds have priced in inflation peak and future Fed funds rate increases. The technical picture from DeMark provides a 13 sequential sell signal…
