As employees work remotely, food prices become a more important driver of wage growth. FAO world food price is now below what it was at the beginning of the Ukraine war. Growth in the FAO index, plotted 7 months forward, forecasts wage inflation moderating to 3.5% in 2023. Wage growth…
The Trends in CPI are Obvious1 Food has been slowing for 2 months in a row.Energy is tanking, matching the roundtrip seen in oil, diesel, gasoline, and even natural gas.The rate of used cars is falling -36%.Shelter has slowed visibly and now matches the downtrend of other market-based measures of home…
Brokered CDs Reaching New Highs in 2022 Yields of the 2-year T-Note over 4% and anticipated increases in the Fed funds rate, together, forecast substantial increases in brokered CDs of $250,000 or less. IDC Financial Publishing (IDCFP) has attempted over time to estimate brokered CDs for individual banks. The unknown in the equation…
Updated for 3rd Quarter 2022 Ranks Over the next two years, we expect the number of banks issuing brokered CDs to grow, recovering in 2022 and reaching the prior high of 1500 by 2024 (see Chart I). With the dramatic rise in 2 and 5-year yields, so have the yields offered…
According to Ed Yardeni, the US economy is doing well even though it has been in a “rolling recession,” hitting different industries at different times, since the start of 2022. So rather than a hard landing, a “rolling recession” provides a soft landing, aka a “growth recession,” and, potentially, no…
