The Worst Monthly Spike in Core Services in 22 Years

Inflation in “core services” has been a hot topic for the Fed for over a year. It’s where consumers spend the majority of their money now, compared to in 2022 where the focus was in goods and services. Core services is all services except energy services, and it spiked massively…

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IDC’s 2023Q4 CAMEL Analysis Indicates Mixed Results

The Importance of IDC’s Ranks As of the fourth quarter 2023, IDC Financial Publishing (IDCFP) ranked 426 institutions below investment grade (see Table I). The number of banks ranked less than 125 decreased from the previous quarter, as did the total number of banks ranked overall. However, the number of banks in…

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Credit Card Delinquencies Surged in 2023

In 2023 credit card delinquencies surged more than 50% as total consumer debt grew to $17.5 trillion. Quarter-over-quarter total debt rose by $212 billion or 1.2%, and rose 3.6% year-over-year. Debt that is defined as seriously delinquent, or 90 days-plus past due, increased across multiple categories in 2023, but the greatest…

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Regional Banks Continue to Struggle

The bank crisis is over, but regional and community banks continue to struggle with poor profits and the tolls of higher rates. In the fourth quarter of 2023, profits at regional banks dropped sharply, and those losses were not exclusive to the smaller banks. Net income was down from a…

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A Contrarian View on Inflation

It appears that PCE inflation is encouraging, with the core PCE price index at +2.9% year-over-year in December, the lowest since March 2021 and aiming for the Fed’s 2% target. But, after being stuck at 3.5% over the past six months annualized, core services accelerated to 4.0% in December, while…

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